The electoral contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is one of the closest in modern American history. Polls in seven key swing states show a very narrow margin, with each candidate leading in certain areas by just one or two points.
Here are the possible scenarios for how the outcome could unfold.
- Narrow Victory for Harris Over Trump
Polling and early voting data suggest that the most likely outcome is a narrow victory for Harris. Harris holds a slight lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—crucial states that, together with Nebraska’s 2nd District, would give her the 270 electoral votes needed for a win. A victory in Nevada, where she also has a slight lead, could further boost her total.
A significant factor in Harris’s potential victory could be older white voters—a demographic that typically supports Republicans but appears to be leaning towards the Democrats this time.
- Narrow Victory for Trump
Trump could secure victory either through the eastern states—winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—or through the southern states, winning Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Pennsylvania is a key part of the puzzle, and while it slightly favours Harris, a win there could bring Trump to the 270 electoral votes needed.
In this scenario, Trump’s success may depend on increased support from Black and Hispanic voters. Polls indicate that Trump has gained significant ground among Black men, particularly in eastern states, and among Hispanics in the South, where issues like housing costs and border security are especially important.
- Clear Victory for Either Candidate
Although the polls are close, a slight shift of just two points could lead to a more decisive result for either candidate. For Harris, a strong turnout among female voters, especially after the overturning of the Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision, could be crucial. A recent poll showed Harris leading Trump by three points in Iowa, a state Trump won by eight points in 2020, indicating that she could perform well in other states if women vote in large numbers.
For Trump, a clear victory would require historic support from Black and Hispanic voters, reflecting dissatisfaction with Harris’s campaign and the Biden administration’s handling of issues such as the Gaza conflict.
- Tie or Unexpected Result
Given the neck-and-neck polling, the possibility of a tie in the Electoral College (269-269) or unexpected outcomes remains. In the event of a tie, the House of Representatives would decide the election in January, with each state delegation having one vote.
Recent polls have shown some shifts that could impact the final outcome:
- Economic Policy Approval: Harris has closed the gap on economic issues, which has been Trump’s strongest point for a long time.
- Undecided Voters: In recent days, undecided voters appear to be leaning towards Harris, which could give her a crucial boost.
- Retrospective Approval of Trump’s Term: Many voters approve of Trump’s previous presidency, which could work in his favour.
- Preparedness for Post-Election Tensions
Washington is preparing for potential protests or unrest following the election. Businesses near the White House have already boarded up their entrances, reflecting concerns about possible reactions, especially given the high level of polarisation and election scepticism.
As the country awaits the outcome, authorities are preparing for any responses that may follow the announcement of the results, recalling the unrest following the 2016 election and the Capitol attack on 6 January 2021.
With both sides ready to challenge the election result, Americans are awaiting the end of a historic electoral contest and preparing for what might follow.
